Insights

Strategy Blog

Another debt ratio observation

CBO long-term US debt projections have improved since 2021 due to small assumption changes, highlighting forecast sensitivity, while rising bond yields reflect inflation and interest rate dynamics, not fiscal concerns.

Perspectives podcast

Signals through the noise

A resilient economy, a narrow market rally, and an AI spending boom that continues to reshape the investment landscape.

Insights

Insights Issue 17 - Resilience under pressure

In elite sport, as in investing, long-term success is rarely decided by single moments. What matters more are discipline, focus, and the ability to remain calm under pressure.

Market Perspective

Inflation, stock valuations, AI FAQs

Global markets remain resilient despite geopolitical tension and rising energy prices, supported by strong earnings and AI-driven optimism.

Thematic Insights

The robots are (almost) here

Humanoid robots, long a staple of science fiction, are now approaching real-world deployment.

Business with humanity

Preparing portfolios for the unexpected

Financial markets rarely move in isolation. Periods of stress tend to emerge when several pressures unfold simultaneously such as tightening financial conditions, shifting policy expectations, liquidity constraints or sudden repricing of risk.

Strategy Blog

Supply chain update

Global supply chains face rising stress but remain resilient. Hormuz disruption halted key energy flows, prompting rerouting. Delivery times have lengthened slightly, shipping rates remain contained, and trade volumes stay healthy.

CIO Lens

Why this is not 1973

Oil prices have nearly doubled since the start of the coordinated attacks on Iran in February. Brent crude has risen sharply, climbing from around 60 dollars per barrel at the start of the year to around 110 dollars.

Carlos Mejia

Insights

Insights Issue 17: Calm Capital

Uncertainty is a constant in markets, not an exception. What matters is how it is approached. In this edition of Insights, we consider how structure, preparation and a long-term perspective can help anchor decision-making when conditions are less predictable

Monthly Market Summary

April: Buoyant markets, uneasy geopolitics

In April, global markets rebounded strongly, led by technology stocks, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and renewed energy-driven inflation pressures.

Strategy Blog

Why have stocks gone up?

The ceasefire has been extended (again), but the situation seems as fluid and potentially volatile as ever. Genuine insight and perspective is elusive. Bizarre statements are made, over-analysed by a hapless media, and then reversed (and re-analysed). 

Perspectives podcast

Calm in the crosscurrents

Markets have remained strikingly composed in the face of a more uncertain geopolitical backdrop and rising energy costs.

Strategy Blog

Stagflation redux?

Despite war, blockades and oil near $100, global equities hit highs. Stagflation fears echo 1973 and 2022, but today’s shocks look smaller and shorter-lived. With earnings resilient and rates nearer neutral, markets may keep looking past geopolitical risks for now.

Corporate

Why women should start planning their future today

Women face wider pension gaps due to part‑time work, lower pay and longer lives. Early planning, active financial management and risk awareness can improve long‑term security and independence.

Jacqueline Sterchi

Monthly Market Summary

March: Conflict hits both stocks and bonds

Escalating Middle East tensions pushed energy prices sharply higher and dragged down equities, bonds and gold, while central banks held rates steady and monitored rising inflation risks.

Strategy Blog

Private credit canaries

Even before war broke out in the Middle East, stress was beginning to show up in the private credit market.

Perspectives podcast

Markets on edge

February has been a month of recalibration. Growth remains resilient, central banks remain patient, and equity markets are rotating rather than reversing.

Strategy Blog

Oil and rates

Against the backdrop of Middle East conflict, energy disruptions are lifting inflation expectations, pressuring stocks and bonds. Markets now price fewer rate cuts, though growth risks may temper inflation. From here, equities look more vulnerable than bonds overall for now.

Strategy Blog

Energy price shock?

Energy price spikes from Middle East conflict risk pushing US and European inflation above recent 2–4% ranges, with oil and gas disruptions raising headline CPI and broader costs amid uncertainty.

Strategy Blog

The ‘K shaped’ stock market

Before the market mood darkened, an unusual and potentially significant story had been emerging in recent months.

Monthly Market Summary

February: Stocks march higher amid AI fragmentation

In February, global equities and bonds advanced amid rising markets despite AI‑related tensions, a geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and a US tariff reversal following the Supreme Court’s decision.

Market Perspective

Gold, the dollar and another new world

In this issue of Market Perspective we offer our perspective on: the surge in gold; the dollar's weakness, and what it means in a portfolio context; and on the alleged "new world order". 

News Article

The next phase of the AI era: Three possible scenarios for the year ahead

In this report we outline three scenarios for the months ahead: our current Mosaique "central" view, as well as a "worse" and "better" case scenario.

Perspectives podcast

Adjusting the dial

February has been a month of recalibration. Growth remains resilient, central banks remain patient, and equity markets are rotating rather than reversing.

Strategy Blog

Demography and debt revisited

Clients worry – understandably – that a greying, indebted world bodes badly for portfolios. The issues may be more nuanced than they seem, however, and other things matter more to living standards and investment returns. Here is a recap of our take.

Investment Views

Designing better decisions

Behind every investment decision lies more than numbers. Habits, emotions and subtle cues shape our choices, often unconsciously.

Strategy Blog

Buoyant earnings expectations

Equity markets remain resilient despite geopolitical turmoil, supported by robust earnings and high US margins. Growth is broadening across sectors and regions, though sustaining elevated US profitability may prove challenging as conditions evolve further ahead.

Monthly Market Summary

January: Stocks brush aside fraught geopolitics

Global equities rose in January despite heightened geopolitical tensions, supported by resilient growth and broader market participation, while inflation trends, US policy and commodity moves shaped the month’s narrative.

Strategy Blog

The next Fed Chair

Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Markets were steady, reflecting confidence in his credibility, though he may pursue lower rates and a smaller balance sheet despite ongoing political pressure.

Corporate

Investment Outlook 2026: Staying the course

We explore why the global backdrop remains more stable than the headlines suggest, and where investors should remain particularly attentive in the year ahead.

Perspectives podcast

Turning the volume back up

January has turned the volume back up, but markets remain relatively resilient beneath the headlines.

Strategy Blog

Fed independence: Q&A

Despite President Trump’s pressure and a criminal probe into Jerome Powell, the Fed’s independence largely held. Market reaction stayed muted, legal limits constrain Trump’s influence, and any politicised rate cuts risk credibility, inflation, and broader financial instability for global markets ahead. 

Perspectives podcast

In conversation with Mark Sedwill, former UK Cabinet Secretary and National Security Adviser

Clarity can feel scarce in uncertain times. Mark Sedwill offers a measured view on global dynamics and the value of long-term thinking.

Strategy Blog

The Three Body Problem

Since WWII, geopolitics split into East and West, but that model may fade. U.S. assertiveness contrasts Europe’s passivity, hinting at three major players.

Monthly Market Summary

December: A strong end to 2025

Global markets ended 2025 on a strong note: equities at record highs, inflation easing, and central banks shifting to looser policies, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. 

Strategy Blog

2025: a year of resilience

Despite protectionism, conflict, and fiscal concerns, 2025 delivered resilient growth, falling rates, and easing geopolitical risks. Stocks soared, bonds rebounded, gold surged, and fundamentals strengthened, driving broad market gains despite dollar weakness and fragmented AI-driven momentum.